After the publication of the MVM model, a tool helping CPA based affiliate publishers gain insight in their strategy, I got a lot of positive comments from the industry including the publication of my model on Emerce.

With the change of the season for travel-related publishers; its the right time to elaborate a bit more on the “Market Value” variable in the MVM model. This is an important variable that has a major impact on any CPA based affiliation strategy.

Short recap

The MVM model is a model that helps publishers understand if they should send more traffic and to understand the probability chances of conversion on the by them generated click out. It basically helps publishers to understand the market willingness to buy.

The “Market Value”

The “MV” variable is the only external variable in the model that basically tells a publisher what the market environment is. I have listed a few examples (and will add a few more today) that can be used to determine the “score” of this variable.

It’s important that publishers use their industry knowledge of that of actual developments to determine the score. This means I expect publishers that use this model to understand the market they operate in.

Every part of the MV variable has an influence on the total output score of the

Using performance indicators

To make it a bit easier I suggest we grade the MV now with a numerical grade; from 1 to 10 where 1 means an absolute terrible market value and 10 means the absolute best.

To determine the total MV score; one should grade every sub-variable that makes up the MV with a 1 to 10 and then divide the total outcome by the number of sub-variables. This basic exercise will already give you a lot of insights in the market you operate in and is a useful method of forcing yourself to review your strategy.

Using a deeper MV grading system.

If you wish to go much deeper into the MV score this topic will help you out.

Feel free to multiply the values with 10 and use a 1-100 scale if you wish to go deeper into the MV score.

Next to this; you can assign extra weight to certain sub-variables to make them more important in determining the average. For example: if you have a destination specific travel website; terrorist attacks or political unrest may have a very very heavy effect on the MV. Use your own knowledge to determine the weight of certain sub-variables.

The different sub-variables

  • Weather: The weather has an important impact on the MV. Although different for various segments of industries its known that sunny, warm weather has a negative impact on the buying behaviour of visitors.
  • Time of the year: In travel; summer-time has a good influence on sales while the months of October and November traditionally have a negative influence.
  • Public Holidays: If your potential customers are on holiday they are less likely to convert.
  • Unforeseen circumstances: Terror threats, political unrest, financial market drops and other unforeseen circumstances may have a negative (or positive; insurance market) impact on your business.
  • Mega-events: Mega-events such as the World Cup, Olympic Games and similar sized events usually have a negative effect on your customer’s willingness to buy and therefore conversions.
  • Macro-events: Events that are smaller such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday may have a positive influence on the conversions.
  • Offline promotions made by the industry: If there is a lot of offline advertising done in the industry you operate in, conversion probability (and therefore the score of this variable) may increase.
  • Product pricing: If you are actively pushing products, increased prices or other changes impact the conversion probability of your visitors.

Because so very dependant on the industry you operate in you should always consider adding more variables if possible.


By doing the above analysis a few times per month you are already able to gain a lot more insight in your short-term strategy; its a useful method that has been proven to work. I hope you can use it in your advantage.

Feel free to reach out to me using the contact form on my site or in the comment section. I’m happy to answer any question you may have!

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